Brexit and global financial markets - Grand Union Markets Forex Broker
In 2017, 52% of the Brexit referendum voters voted in favor of the UK’s secession from the EU. The experts of the brokerage company Grand Union Markets broker analyzed, in which way the global financial markets reacted to Brexit news and what awaits us soon.
So, on February 1, Rubicon was crossed: The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland officially ceased membership in the European Union. The transition period, which will end on January 1, 2021, began. This step, of course, affected the financial markets and exchange rates - first of all, it affected Great British Pound (GBP), writes Grand Union Markets forex experts. But to understand the whole picture, the specialists of Grand Union Markets broker analyzed how the UK found itself in the current situation.
Grand Union Markets forex recalls that London became the world’s leading financial center during the heyday of the British Empire. From the colonies, financial streams flowed to the capital of the metropolis. London was the leading global financial center, and the pound of sterling was the leading world currency. In the twentieth century, British power staggered: the empire started to lose colonies, one by one, and financial flows paved the way. After the Second World War, Great Britain finally lost its world leadership and could no longer compete with the leading economies of the world – USA, Soviet Union, then China. By the 1970s, the UK threatened to become outsiders, writes Grand Union markets broker review. Still, the freshly created European Economic Union (EEU), the predecessor of the current European Union, came to the rescue.
Joining the EEC in 1973 strengthened the trade and economic position of Great Britain, but immediately created a host of political problems. As the Grand union markets review recalls, London disagreed with the Brussels (the capital of EEU) on a variety of issues, ranging from the degree of state influence on the country’s economy, ending with the legalization of the medical drugs. The United Kingdom still behaved as Great Britain, though the global impact was much lesser then. Margaret Thatcher opposed the European integration processes throughout her premiership: she did not like the political strengthening of Brussels and the growing influence of the EEU on British policy.
However, from a financial point of view, the union benefited Britain: the pound grew stronger, and London used the well-developed banking system to become the European largest commercial hub. These days it’s no longer a secret, according to the Grand union markets broker review, that in many respects the welfare of Great Britain was based on the flows of criminal money. The money came from problem regions: from the post-Soviet space, from the warring Balkans, from the dictatorial regimes of Africa. London banks helped to decriminalize the origin of this money and introduce it into the world’s financial turnover on legal rights, in particular, through the famous London Stock Exchange.
In 1998, when the European Union was created, and a new currency was launched, the UK refused to enter a united monetary space and to replace the pound with the euro. Skeptics prophesied the weakening of the pound, but they were mistaking: on the contrary, the pound was slowly but steadily growing against the euro. Rate growth charts can be viewed on the Grand union markets review. This became especially noticeable in 2012 when the European Union was experiencing an economic crisis provoked by the Greek default. During this periodthe pound seemed to be a safer and more stable currency compared with the volatile euro, which helped to strengthen it.
It is not surprising that Brexit did not affect the price of the British currency in any positive way. As soon as the question of a referendum arose and the society started discussions of separationfrom the European Union, the pound began to weaken. When the results of the referendum became known, the pound began to fever following the news, especially of financial sector news, including the rumors that most English-based trading companies like the Grand union markets are a scam. Soon after that those rumors were declared unreliable, but the time for pound was already lost.
While Great Britain was a member of the EEC and EU, globalist trends have intensified in the world. The world production concentrated in China and other Asian countries, but the financiers all over the world preferred to keep money in the good old England, or rather, in reliable London banks. Leading banks of the leading world countries opened representative offices in London, and financial offices of global corporations functioned in the same place. But with the withdrawal of Britain from the Commonwealth and the resumption of the border between them, difficulties in mutual settlements will inevitably arise, Grand Union markets review predicts. Anticipating this fact and calculating possible losses, the most far-sighted companies began to transfer operations centers to the continent, primarily to Berlin.
In 2019, British Prime Minister Teresa May, failed to find a compromise with the parliament under the Brexit procedure, resigned. As a result, elections were held, and one of the Brexit ideologists Boris Johnson won the seat of British Prime Minister. Before this, a part of society had hopes that Brexit would be happening slowly and gradually, or even be canceled at all. Johnson’s election crossed out these hopes. Grand union markets broker review states the main problem is that Johnson does not have a specific plan. Many questions remain in limbo, and every comment by leading British politicians leads to leaps in the pound rate.
So, the central question of Brexit is whether the UK will agree to the so-called deal with the EU. This deal involves the payment of specific compensation to the European Union in return for assistance in reformatting trade, economic and financial ties. According to Grand union markets, this is a dubious deal or scam. Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated his tough stance on this issue - he is an opponent of the agreement. Consequently, all the risks taken into account and unaccounted are the problem of the United Kingdom.
One of the risks is the consequences of changes in the UK migration policy. You can find out that Boris Johnson intends to make a migration policy stronger. It means a reduction in the inflow of foreign labor – which is already declining after the start of Brexit. According to forecasts, with the restriction of labor migration in the next 15 years, the UK will lose up to 10% of GDP. However, without migration restrictions, the dynamics will still be negative: 7.5% of GDP will disappear.
Another risk is the border of Northern Ireland. The northern part of the island belongs to the UK, the rest is an independent state of Ireland. Over the years, Ireland has struggled to return once-lost territory under its jurisdiction, which leads to constant conflict. After both the UK and Ireland became EU members, the tensions between the two countries weakened. Now, the border will reappear between the two parts of Ireland. This can increase the terrorist movement (IRA). This is a threat of the rise of electronic fraud, known as a scam, writes Grand union markets. You can read a lot about this threat on websites mentioning grandunion-markets.com in the reviews section.
Alas, until now, the British leaders have no specific plans for resolving these and many other issues related to Britain’s exit from the EU. Grand union markets review reports that by the end of 2020, London and Brussels must conclude a trade agreement. There are options for a facilitated agreement, similar to the existing arrangements between the EU and Australia, or the EU and Canada. In this case, duties between the European Union and Great Britain will be minimized and will hardly affect trade turnover. But there are enough supporters of a hard exit in Britain, which means an exit without an agreement. In this case, trade between EU countries and the UK will be subject to standard duties. At the same time, trade turnover will fall by about a third. Grandunion-markets.com reviewsand the reviews of many other broker companies will receive a lot of one-star rates because of uncertain bank procedures and delays.
The lengthy process of starting the Brexit procedure allowed the British pound to regain some positions: its rate has strengthened against the euro after it fell to a two-year low in mid-2019. But when Brexit finally started, the British currency went down again. All the graphs can be viewed on the Grand union markets broker review. In case of Brexit without aor trade agreement with the EU, the prospect of the pound is unenviable: it will lose its weight, and it is predicted it can equal the euro in the beginning of 2021.
Why do some of the UK inhabitants insist on the most severe break with the mainland? They believe that being freed from EU regulations, a new impetus can push the development of the British economy. Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated that Britain will abandon European standards - in the ecology, state subsidies, industrial production, and so on. Grand union markets review doubts the accuracy of these forecasts. Currently, London, by tradition, remains a financial center. But the final break with the EU will make the UK just one of the big countries that cannot fully compete with the United States, China, and the European Union itself.
It is obvious that the severe scenario of Brexit is beneficial to American financiers. Moreover, current US President Donald Trump regularly promises the UK an exclusive bargain after Britain regains an independent voice. For the United Kingdom, this is important: United States is its largest trading partner as a country. Grand union markets broker review writes that for the US economy, a deal with the UK will go unnoticed: trade between the two countries is less than 1% of US exports.
However, American businesses have plans for the British markets after Brexit. For example, the medical drug market seems very promising. Earlier, the entry of American companies was complicated by the rules and regulations of the EU. Grandunion-markets.com reviews show that a number of stocks have already reacted to those perspectives. Brexit eliminates this obstacle while creating a shortage in the British drug market: now, they will need to revise trade rules and regulations, which will inevitably slow down supplies. US pharmaceutical companies can take advantage of this moment. Besides, the Grand union markets broker review indicates that Americans are keenly watching the British agricultural sector, which they also could not access during the last decades.
As you can see, there are enough supporters of hard Brexit both inside the UK and abroad. Of course, the US market expects a period of volatility in case of a break without a deal. According to Grand union markets broker review, in 2016, when preparations for a referendum on Brexit began, the Dow Jones stock index fell 5-6%. Pessimists predicted that Brexit would cost the United States 0.5% of GDP. However, this did not happen, the index quickly recovered, and the losses turned out to be insignificant. That’s one strong reason to believe that this may happen again in 2020-21.
One way or another, it is difficult to calculate the prospects for all those scenarios, since there are no concrete plans or concrete measures. Skeptics from Grand union markets broker review are predicting a fall in consumer demand and rising product prices as a result of hard Brexit. The good news for the United Kingdom is that in a globalized world economy, such a big player is not allowed to fall. The economic crisis in Britain will affect the countries of the European Union, the United States, and others. So the period of volatility will be short.